The Aaron Harber Show

Press Releases (Past Shows)

* MARC HOLTZMAN -- THE COMEBACK KID?

Marc Holtzman’s campaign to replace Governor Owens has been so error-filled it is amazing he is even standing today. He has withstood (1) a campaign manager forced to resign for admitting he lied to reporters (he was “spinning” a bit too much), (2) quick retreats by a number of alleged supporters (such as John Elway) who Holtzman claimed were behind him, (3) an “outsider” campaign strategy which further isolated the candidate, (4) overwhelming lack of support from elected Republican officials across the State of Colorado, (5) a concerted effort by the Republican State Party to derail his campaign, (6) a blistering legal attack by a supporter of his Primary Election opponent which resulted in a “guilty” finding and a $4,400 fine -- the first such finding in the history of Colorado and the possibly largest known political fine ever assessed in the State, (7) a devastating loss at the State Convention, where he was shut out by 1.7% from being on the Primary Election Ballot, and (6) being ignominiously dumped by the Republican Secretary of State from the Primary Election ballot.

Marc Holtzman has been knocked down more times that a prize fighter who is way past his prime. If the Denver Nuggets had this guy’s stamina, they would be playing for the NBA Championship today. And, if Holtzman somehow survives his latest challenge -- his deletion from the Primary Election ballot due to insufficient signatures -- he will become known as Colorado’s “Comeback Kid.”

At KBDI-TV Channel 12, during a taping of “The Aaron Harber Show” on June 1st, Holtzman confessed his opponent, Bob Beauprez, had out-organized and out-strategized him at the Republican Party’s State Convention on May 20th. It was a candid admission from someone who knew he needed to be better organized and have a superior strategy than his opponent. Holtzman didn’t and he suffered the consequences.

Holtzman needed 30% of the delegates’ votes to secure a spot on the Primary Election ballot and received 28.3% -- just 76 votes shy of the number needed for 30%. It was Beauprez, not Holtzman, who deployed innovative tactics to maintain and then actually increase his support -- all at Holtzman’s expense. The question now is, “What can Holtzman do?” The clock is ticking...

For Marc Holtzman to win the Republican Primary Election on August 8th, he first needs to get on the ballot. Holtzman is confident he can overcome the shortage of valid signatures gathered by his campaign. He could be on the ballot any day, if he prevails either with his request for the Secretary of State, GiGi Dennis, to validate several hundred signatures or if a Colorado court puts him on the ballot.

The probability of Dennis putting him on is not too bad -- probably around 30 to 40%, depending on the quality of his presentation at a hearing on the matter. The probability of the courts putting him on the ballot may be about the same -- in the 30 to 40% range. The courts are loathe to overrule the Executive branch but they also want voters to have their say, just as Colorado law intends.

Holtzman has been running an anti-establishment campaign. The State Party chair abandoned all pretense of evenhandedness and has been aiding Holtzman’s opponent, Congressman Bob Beauprez. Even the Secretary of State, Gigi Dennis, aligned herself with the Beauprez camp -- a terrible misjudgment on her part because the Secretary of State is in charge of all elections and should be a neutral party at all times during the election year. This only strengthened Holtzman’s opportunity to make the case that the fix was in.”

His anti-establishment theme has the potential to “catch fire” in Colorado but probably only when directed at a federal office. If he were running for Congress or the U.S. Senate, his campaign would make more sense. Given the fact Republicans have dominated the General Assembly for most of the past five decades, and the fact Republicans have won the gubernatorial battle the last two times it occurred, his current campaign theme almost appears to be an argument to vote Democratic.

To rally the Republican faithful to his side, Holtzman will have to spend $5 million on television time and direct mail at a maximum saturation level for all of July and the first week of August. Early voting begins on July 29th so ballots will get cast in short order.

Holtzman’s problem is he is running out of time to do everything needed to win an “outsider” or anti-establishment campaign. As a result, even if he makes the ballot, he is highly unlikely to defeat Congressman Bob Beauprez for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. The reality is Holtzman simply has too many battles on too many fronts. Unless he did his time-buys four months ago, unless he had his television, radio, and print advertisements produced a month or two ago, and unless he had his direct mail pieces designed, printed, targeted and ready-to-mail a month ago, he only will have one or two weeks to do all of this. No one has ever done this before in Colorado on the scale Holtzman needs. There is no evidence which demonstrates any likelihood Holtzman will be the first.

Holtzman, who made the mistake of failing to loosen the purse-strings enough to get sufficient signatures to avoid a ballot dispute has shown an unwillingness to spend enough of his own personal wealth to win. If he is fortunate to get on the ballot and repeats that mistake, he will lose the Primary Election “once again, for the first time.”

Stay tuned. We may have a “final answer” by the end of this week. If Holtzman makes the ballot, then the fun will begin and we’ll see if “The Comeback Kid” can stage another last-minute victory.