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HAVE THE REPUBLICANS ALREADY WON?

Part 1 of 3: Republicans Look Favorably On Ballot Issues

In recent years, Republican political operatives have deftly used emotionally explosive ballot issues in some states to turn out voters favorable to Republican candidates. Some would argue George W. Bush’s narrow presidential victories in both 2000 and 2004 were attributable to this strategy.

Anti-gay marriage propositions, anti-abortion initiatives, anti-immigration proposals and similar measures have gone on the ballot in a number of states with the intent of motivating pro-Republican voters. This is a very sophisticated strategy. These “hot button” issues light a fire under certain segments of the population -- convincing them to register to vote and cast their ballots.

In Colorado, one easily could argue the Republican strategists already have outflanked their Democratic counterparts. Statewide Republican candidates begin their campaigns with a 190,000 voter registration edge. That is why one rarely sees the word “Democrat” on the General Election literature of any Democrat running for statewide office.

With this year’s November 7th election, a number of issues may be on the ballot which will stimulate voter registration and turnout likely to be favor Republican candidates. Surprisingly, Democrats have not yet responded and may succumb to the huge lead being established by their opponents.

What is most stunning is the extraordinary number of highly controversial proposals. In the past, the goal was to get one “hot button” issue on the ballot. This year there could be more than half a dozen. No state has experienced the effects of the combination of such a large number of potent issues.

Timing-wise, many would argue it is getting late to mount new ballot crusades. If this is true, Democrats will find themselves at a huge disadvantage before ballots are even printed. Some Republicans are licking their chops as the election draws nearer and they find their issues dominating the political landscape -- consuming Democratic fundraising dollars and putting Democratic candidates on the defensive. Just as Democrats had their own “stealth strategy” in 2004 -- deploying it to gain control of the State House and State Senate for the first time in more than four decades -- Republicans are poised to turn the tables with a “stealth strategy” of their own for 2006.

Next: Part 2 -- The Conservative Hot-Button Issues.

Aaron Harber hosts "The Aaron Harber Show," seen Fridays at 9:00 pm and Sundays at 2:00 pm on PBS Station KBDI-TV Channel 12. Please go to www.HarberTV.com for more information. Send your comments and topic suggestions for both columns and TV shows to Aaron@HarberTV.com. You also may view programs on a 24/7 basis via the “Broadcast Videos” section of the Website. Many of Aaron's columns also are available on the Website on the page entitled “Aaron’s Opinions.”

HAVE REPUBLICANS ALREADY WON?

Part 2 of 3: The Conservative Hot-Button Issues

Now that Republican strategists have outflanked the Democrats and are headed towards a General Election ballot loaded with propositions intended to turnout Republican sympathizers, Democrats will have to carefully study the issues likely to be on the ballot. Here are the candidates for Coloradans on November 7th.

The biggest battle will be over two measures directed at gay people. The first seeks to exclude gay people from ever getting married. It defines marriage as the exclusive union of a man and a woman. While gay people and their supporters chafe at the idea passing restrictions on them, they know every state which had this ballot issue passed it. Coloradans, however, could reject the proposal although it is favored today.

The second proposal related to gay people seeks to grant gay couples some of the legal rights enjoyed by heterosexual couples. It is referred to as a “domestic partnership” measure. Having access to a partner at hospitals, being able to inherit property, and similar legal conveniences are being proposed so gay couples have some of the same legal rights as straight couples.

These first two measures will bring out voters from either side of the aisle but are likely to do more to rousing pro-Republican citizens.

Another significant proposal is an anti-immigration measure which attempts to limit the State’s expenditures on illegal immigrants. This appears superfluous to many because the State already has laws, rules, and regulation which prohibit such expenditures. Nevertheless, the proponents of the measure want the limitations written into the State’s Constitution.

Already on the ballot is a proposal to return the petition process to the simpler form it once enjoyed in Colorado. Another proposal may seek to limit the State’s authority to condemn private property.

Perhaps the most controversial proposal will be an anti-abortion measure which will seek to prohibit the abortion of a viable fetus. In the past, “viability” referred to the capacity for a fetus to survive, on its own, outside the womb. The ballot proposal will redefine viability to mean any fetus which could survive either on its own or with medical assistance.

Never has Colorado seen so many potentially explosive issues on the ballot at the same time (and there are more!). It is no accident this is occurring in the 2006 election cycle.

Next: Part 3 -- Is It Too Late For The Democrats To Respond?

HAVE THE REPUBLICANS ALREADY WON?

Part 3 of 3: Is It Too Late For The Democrats To Respond?

How can Democrats counter the Republican strategy of flooding the November 7th General Election ballot with hot-button issues which will turn out conservative, Republican-leaning voters in droves -- greatly enhancing the chances of every Republican candidate?

This year there also may be a proposal to legalize the possession of small amounts of marijuana but it’s hardly fair to call that a Democratic proposal -- or to think such a proposition would turn out legions of Democratic-leaning voters. (One could argue the most interested supporters of such a measure are not even likely to make the effort to vote!)

The sponsors of a similar measure passed by voters in 2004 for the City & County of Denver were emboldened by their success and are hopeful they can transfer that city-wide success to a statewide victory. Democrats need to do better than this if they are to negate the potential tidal wave of conservative voters who could dominate the 2006 election.

Some of the ballot measures have time-bombs which voters may not perceive. For example, in the anti-abortion measure, the defining issue in prohibiting an abortion is “fetus viability.” Given the advances in the field of medical science, “viability” is being redefined on a daily basis.

In the past, viability was measured in a small number of days backward from the anticipated term of a pregnancy. The nine-month gestation period left little room for premature births. Over time, medical science began to roll this back -- to the point today where tiny beings weighing less than a pound can survive premature birth months before their projected birth dates.

The measure has the potential, over the long-term, to prohibit a woman from choosing to have an abortion for the vast majority of the length of a pregnancy. With severe penalties for doctors who perform abortions, even fewer than the already declining number who perform abortions today will provide this service.

So Democrats have their work cut out for them. They need to explain the impact of complex ballot proposals, find ways to defeat some initiatives, and launch their own propositions. But is it already too late to do accomplish all these goals?

Can “better candidates,” “being right on the issues,” and “more money” -- the alleged triumvirate of Democrats’ success in 2004, along with a “stealth” factor they no longer have -- keep them in power? Or will the Republicans’ strategy prevail in November -- resulting in their taking back control of the Statehouse?

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