The Aaron Harber Show

Aaron's Real Opinions (Yikes!)

GAY RIGHTS VOTER SURVEY CREATES SURPRISING OPPORTUNITY

Part 1 of 2:The Poll Results And Their Surface Meaning

A recent public opinion poll about possible November 7th General Election ballot issues has one surprise no one noticed. The numbers were so close that, while it appears each side could prevail on its own proposal, it is entirely possible one side would not only win on its issue but defeat the other.

The numbers were close. When prospective voters were asked about two potential issues -- “domestic partnerships” (which grant gay couples some of the legal rights married couples enjoy today) and limiting “marriage” to the union of one man and one woman, it appeared 50% supported the former and 55% supported the latter.

In other words, it appeared a significant number of Coloradans supported granting same-sex couples some of the rights of married couples yet they also wanted to reserve marriage exclusively for different-sex (i.e., heterosexual) couples.

The poll revealed that more than one out of three Coloradans (36%) opposed amending the State Constitution to define marriage as the union of one man and one woman while slightly more than two out of five (41%) opposed domestic partnerships for same-sex couples.

Proponents of domestic partnerships were pleased to be supported by half the electorate before a campaign even began. Similarly, proponents of the different sex marriage or the traditional definition of marriage were just as pleased to have a majority of voters on their side and start their campaign for passage with almost a 20-point lead.

Thus, it certainly is conceivable that both measures are passed by voters. Coloradans are likely to favor the restricted definition of marriage, as voters in every state before them also concluded. And Coloradans, who generally have a “live and let live” philosophy and are rarely interested in being malevolent or hurtful, are just as likely to allow same-sex couples to have some of the same legal rights married couples enjoy, such as access to a partner in the hospital, the right to inherit assets, et cetera. The question is, “Do the numbers show one side can prevail?’

Next: Part 2 of 2: The Potential For A Sweep

Aaron Harber hosts "The Aaron Harber Show," seen Fridays at 9:00 pm and Sundays at 2:00 pm on PBS Station KBDI-TV Channel 12. Please go to www.HarberTV.com for more information. Send your comments and topic suggestions for both columns and TV shows to Aaron@HarberTV.com. You also may view programs on a 24/7 basis via the “Broadcast Videos” section of the Website. Many of Aaron's columns also are available on the Website on the page entitled “Aaron’s Opinions.” You often can find them in The Colorado Statesman (www.ColoradoStatesman.com) as well as in The Denver Daily News (www.DenverDailyNews.com).

GAY RIGHTS VOTER SURVEY CREATES SURPRISING OPPORTUNITY

Part 2 of 2: The Potential For A Sweep

With two prospective gay rights-related measures facing voters in the General Election -- one authorizing “domestic partnerships” and the other restricting “marriage” to different-sex (i.e., heterosexual couples -- voters will have the opportunity to either (a) support one or the other, (b) approve both proposals or (c) defeat both proposals.

What is most interesting is the current polling numbers (55% for defining marriage as between one man and one woman with 36% opposed, while 50% are in favor of domestic partnerships and 41% are opposed) offer each side the opportunity for a sweep.

That is, in general, those proposing to limit marriage typically are opposed to domestic partnerships. They see the domestic partnership proposal as the beginning of the process to grant gay people equal rights -- including the right to be married. And there is no question that many gay people want to have those rights and see domestic partnerships as the first stop on the train ride to gay marriage.

Conversely, those supporting domestic partnerships usually are opposed to limiting marriage to different-sex couples. If a constitutional measure passes which restricts marriage to heterosexuals, they know it will be extremely difficult to overturn that decision.

The surprise is that the polling numbers are so close that an all-out effort by one side could result in a double victory. Traditional marriage supporters only need to maintain their existing majority for their proposal and shift just 5% of the electorate to defeat the domestic partnership proposal. Similarly, domestic partnership proponents need to maintain their slim majority and shift just 10% of the electorate to defeat the heterosexual marriage definition proposal.

Publicly, each side is saying they want only to get their proposal passed and they are indifferent to whether or not the other side’s proposal passes. But, because each side sees it can win both votes, there will be an extraordinary behind-the-scenes effort by each not only to achieve passage of its proposal but to defeat the other. It will be a donnybrook unlike any other seen in Colorado.