Aaron's Real Opinions (Yikes!)

HICKENLOOPER STAYS ON AS MAYOR:  WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
02-07-06

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper’s decision to not run for Governor will reverberate through the political arena for months to come.  For some Democrats -- particularly those who have been seeking a high profile alternative to former Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter -- the announcement came as huge disappointment.  Ritter, by default, is the leading Democratic candidate as there are no top-tier Democrats left to toss their hats into the ring.  In fact, over the past year, the Democratic Party has set a record for the number of people who either have declared their non-candidacy or even withdrawn from the race.  There’s no one else left to say, “No, thank you.”

Ritter, on the other hand, is ecstatic about Hickenlooper’s decision as the Mayor’s entry into the race would have been the death knell of the Ritter campaign.  Hickenlooper’s decision means Ritter remains the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, despite the fact he is Pro-Choice (which rankles some Democrats and was the reason they searched for another candidate).

Even happier than Ritter are Congressman Bob Beauprez and former Denver University President Marc Holtzman.  Both Republicans knew Hickenlooper would have been formidable. Hickenlooper led both men by substantial margins in polls testing all the candidates.  Except for U.S. Senator Ken Salazar, who already swore off the race, Democrats had no candidate with such a high probability of winning the General Election.

House Majority Leader Alice Madden has floated a candidacy if Hickenlooper didn’t run she would face the statewide bias against liberal candidates from Boulder.  And she probably would lose the Primary Election to Ritter simply because Democrats wanting to regain the Governor’s mansion would outnumber those who were upset with Ritter’s Pro-Life position.

What does it all mean?  Hickenlooper’s decision is what Ritter needed to have Pro-Choice Democrats give up their fight against him.  After all, it’s not like the Republican nominee is going to be better than Ritter on the issue.  For Ritter, Hickenlooper’s decision was a turning point.  For Beauprez, the leading Republican candidate, Hickenlooper’s decision means his chances of being Colorado’s next Governor increased 100% overnight.

Some say Hickenlooper’s indecision hurt his stock with voters but this will be ephemeral.  Hickenlooper will remain popular simply because he has done an extraordinary job as Mayor.  If he continues to have the successes in his second term which he already has achieved during his first term, he will extend his seemingly eternal honeymoon period.

The biggest losers from Hickenlooper’s decision are the Democrats.  Their goal to maintain control of the State House (where a switch of just three seats out of 65 would give Republicans the majority) and the State Senate (where a net gain of just one seat would give Republicans control) took a lethal hit.  With Hickenlooper leading the ticket, Democrats had their best chance of a coattails effect to help them further down the ticket.

The biggest winners are Republican candidates at every level as well as the proponents of the grab-bag of conservative-inspired ballot issues which will turn out Republican-leaning voters in droves.  If limitations on abortion, restrictions on illegal immigrants, and a prohibition against gay marriage are on the ballot, Democrats may find that, without Hickenlooper’s stature and leadership, they are holding a losing hand.

There is plenty of time for more developments, however, and in politics, the unexpected happens with great regularity -- especially in Colorado.  Stay tuned for more!


Aaron Harber hosts "The Aaron Harber Show," seen Fridays at 9:00 pm and Sundays at 2:00 pm on PBS Station KBDI-TV Channel 12.  Please go to www.HarberTV.com for more information.  Send your comments and topic suggestions for both columns and TV shows to Aaron@HarberTV.com.  You also may view programs on a 24/7 basis via the “Broadcast Videos” section of the Website.  Many of Aaron's columns also are available on the Website on the page entitled “Aaron’s Opinions.”


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