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BIG-TIME PRESSURE IS ON HICKENLOOPER

Part I of 3: Why Some Democrats Don’t Like Bill Ritter

With Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff’s final decision to not run for Governor, the pressure on Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper to throw his hat into the ring has reached astronomical proportions. Democrats desperate for an alternative to former Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter are calling Hickenlooper incessantly and pleading with him to enter the race.

These Democrats see a dozen key arguments for Hickenlooper -- who is quite content being Mayor -- to change his mind. While many Democrats are satisfied with Ritter and see him as a strong General Election candidate for exactly the same reasons other Democrats are unenthusiastic about Ritter, a group of prominent Democrats remain unhappy and are seeking an alternative for the following reasons.

These Democrats believe they need a leader at the top of the November ticket who will help other candidates. They doubt Bill Ritter, if he becomes the nominee, will have any coattails.

These Democrats fear Ritter will be subject to a barrage of advertisements identical to those used by Republican congressman Bob Beauprez when he ran against former Jefferson County District Attorney Dave Thomas. The ads selectively used cases where criminals were freed from prison or were not prosecuted the way the public wanted. Of course, these attacks were unfair in that a D.A.’s office handles thousands of cases over the years but they were very effective. The same tactic could effectively be used against Ritter and make him vulnerable.

These Democrats see women’s reproductive rights as a litmus-test issue. The fact Ritter is Pro-Life and is not Pro-Choice is a deal-breaking anathema to these people. They want to make certain the Democratic standard-bearer in the State will protect a woman’s right to have an abortion. They fear that, if Ritter is elected and if voters reinstall Republicans as the majority party in the State House and State Senate, he would sign Republican-sponsored anti-abortion legislation. Given that a three-vote change in the House and only a one-vote change in the Senate could give Republicans that opportunity, this fear is understandable.

Because Ritter never prosecuted any police officer in any shooting incident and because that strained relationships with certain minority organizations, some Democrats fear Ritter will be unable to unite a party which needs everyone onboard to have any kind of chance of winning in a state where Republicans substantially outnumber Democrats.

Ritter’s campaign has yet to generate much enthusiasm. Ritter, himself, is a cool, even-keeled man. The endorsements he has received have not been impressive, especially after considering the fact he is the lone candidate in the field. Some Democrats are concerned he won’t be able to excite and motivate voters.

Next: Part 2 of 3: Why Hickenlooper Is So Attractive

Aaron Harber hosts "The Aaron Harber Show," seen Fridays at 9:00 pm and Sundays at 2:00 pm on PBS Station KBDI-TV Channel 12. Please go to www.HarberTV.com for more information. Send your comments and topic suggestions for both columns and TV shows to Aaron@HarberTV.com. You also may view programs on a 24/7 basis via the “Broadcast Videos” section of the Website. Many of Aaron's columns also are available on the Website on the page entitled “Aaron’s Opinions.” You often can find them in The Colorado Statesman (www.ColoradoStatesman.com) as well as in The Denver Daily News (www.DenverDailyNews.com).

BIG-TIME PRESSURE IS ON HICKENLOOPER

Part 2 of 3: Why Hickenlooper Is So Attractive

In Part 1, Bill Ritter’s weaknesses were identified. Although they motivated some Democrats to look for an alternative, they also see many good reasons to support Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper’s entry into the race. Continuing the list of reasons some Democrats wants Hickenlooper to run for Governor...

Hickenlooper has very high name identification, was just featured in a positive statewide advertising campaign promoting Referenda C & D, and is in newspapers in a positive way on almost a daily basis. His efforts at and success with numerous regional solutions beyond Denver’s borders make him a very attractive candidate.

Hickenlooper comes across as a genuine, humble, smart, and funny guy. In Colorado politics, that’s a good mix. It’s also a good mix for any politician with presidential ambitions -- and, although no one is shouting “Hickenlooper for President” -- more Presidents come from governorships than any other position.

Hickenlooper has the ability and personality to help the Democratic ticket. Democrats already face the possibility every other statewide executive constitutional office will have an incumbent Republican candidate and, as a result, all their candidates will be at a terrible political disadvantage. Hickenlooper’s extraordinary success at multiple economic development issues easily make him the most attractive candidate the Democrats could offer as far as coattails are concerned.

Hickenlooper would be a good fundraiser -- which Ritter is not -- and would attract both substantial “hard” (direct) and “soft (indirect) financial support.

Democrats already lag Republicans by 190,000 registered voters in the State. Some Democrats believe Hickenlooper’s business background and success as Mayor will attract the unaffiliated and Republican voters a Democrat needs to win a statewide race.

Next: Part 3 of 3: The Role Of Factors The Public Doesn’t See

BIG-TIME PRESSURE IS ON HICKENLOOPER

Part 3 of 3: The Role Of Factors The Public Doesn’t See

In addition to Bill Ritter’s “negative” and John Hickenlooper’s “positives,” there are two other motivating factors which are causing some Democrats to put as much pressure as they can muster on Hickenlooper to enter the race to be Colorado’s next Governor. These two complete the 12-count list of reasons some Democrats wants Hickenlooper to run for Governor...

After ignoring his veto power for much of his first six years in office, Governor Bill Owens vetoed a record 47 bills in 2005 and his presence loomed large -- influencing hundreds of other bills. Many of these were modified before final passage to meet his approval and to avoid a veto. His recent New Year’s resolution, albeit jokingly, was to veto 48 bills in the 2006 legislative session. While humorously made, his point reminded Democrats how important it was for them to retake the Governor’s mansion. Owens’ comments served only to further motivate Democrats to seek a candidate who had the best chance of succeeding him.

Democrats looking to the future appreciate the almost 100% probability that a candidate, once elected Governor, is likely to win a second term. Dick Lamm ran in 1974 and won reelection in 1978 and 1982. Roy Romer ran in 1986 and was reelected in 1990 and 1994. Bill Owens ran in 1998 and won by only 8,000 votes. He went on to win reelection by 400,000 votes in 2002. Governors now are limited to two consecutive terms and Coloradans appear unwilling to change horses in midstream under almost any conditions. This means whoever is elected Governor in 2006 is likely to be reelected in 2010 and, therefore, will play a crucial role in the 2011 redistricting process -- which is done after the completion of the 2010 Census.

It is this last point which often is overlooked but which, to those in the political process, is the most important reason for Hickenlooper to run. The 11-member Reapportionment Commission determines the boundaries for Colorado’s 35 State Senate seats and its 65 State House seats and is appointed by the majority and minority leaders in each chamber (4 members total), the Governor (3 members), and the State Supreme Court Chief Justice (4 members).

The General Assembly is responsible for determining the boundaries of Colorado’s seven congressional districts. If one party has a majority in both chambers of the General Assembly and controls the Governor’s mansion, they usually can dominate the decisions which dictate how each party will do for the following decade.

For some future-looking Democrats, winning the Governor’s mansion in 2006 is important simply because what it will mean in 2011 and for a full decade thereafter. So, while it may not make a lot of sense personally for John Hickenlooper to abandon the job he loves -- i.e., being Mayor of the City & County of Denver -- it is easy to see why so many Democrats are banging on his door. Stay tuned for a decision in the next few days.