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HICKENLOOOPER FOR GOVERNOR?

Part I of 2: Will John Hickenlooper Run For Governor?

The question on the minds of almost everyone in the political arena is “Will Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper run for Governor?” Hickenlooper consistently has quelled rumors about a possible candidacy for months. He never made a Shermanesque statement (“If nominated, I won’t run; if elected, I won’t serve”) but all indications were he would not pursue the Governor’s mansion.

Democrats unhappy with the candidacy of Pro-Life candidate Bill Ritter have been searching high and low for a formidable candidate but have failed to date. While Colorado Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff seems to be a good possibility, many are concerned whether he can win the 2006 General Election -- or even defeat Ritter in a Primary Election (which could be a battle to the death -- to the General Election detriment of both candidates).

Recently Hickenlooper indicated he had not completely closed the door on a possible gubernatorial candidacy and some Democrats squealed with excitement. Democrats and Republicans alike know Hickenlooper would be a formidable statewide candidate.

Hickenlooper has the advantage of being able to run for Governor and lose in the Fall of 2006 and then still run for re-election as Mayor in the Spring of 2007. Even if he lost the 2006 election at the Primary or General Election level, he still would be the odds-on favorite to win re-election. He knows, however, that if he runs for Governor, Ritter will stay in the race through the Primary Election and make the process a difficult one.

Hickenlooper enjoys popular support not only from the City and County of Denver but throughout the suburbs and entire State. He would be favored to win any Primary or General Election due to his high name recognition and an immense list of accomplishments catalogued in just 2 years in office. The question to be posed is, “Does John Hickenlooper really want to be Governor and make the sacrifices necessary to win a statewide race?”

NEXT: Hickenlooper’s Decision

Aaron Harber hosts "The Aaron Harber Show," seen Fridays at 9:00 pm and Sundays at 2:00 pm on PBS Station KBDI-TV Channel 12. Please go to www.HarberTV.com for more information. Send your comments and topic suggestions for both columns and TV shows to Aaron@HarberTV.com. You also may view programs on a 24/7 basis via the “Broadcast Videos” section of the Website. Many of Aaron's columns also are available on the Website on the page entitled “Aaron’s Opinions.” You often can find them in The Colorado Statesman (www.ColoradoStatesman.com) as well as in The Denver Daily News (www.DenverDailyNews.com).

HICKENLOOOPER FOR GOVERNOR?

Part 2 of 2: Hickenlooper’s Decision

Despite the extraordinary pressure from key Democratic operatives he is under to run for Governor, there are too many reasons for John Hickenlooper to say “No, thank you” when the final decision is made to run for Governor. Here’s the list.

Some would argue being Mayor of Denver is the most powerful position in Colorado. The Mayor appoints more paid staff members than the Governor. The Mayor has the benefit of a “strong executive” position and unilaterally makes the most important decisions for the City. Colorado’s Governor occupies a “weak executive” position and is considered one of the feeblest in the nation. Why trade a strong position for a weak one?

Colorado’s Governor has to deal with the State House and the State Senate --often controlled by the opposition party. The General Assembly includes 100 members -- each with his or her own agenda. That alone is enough to discourage a rational person from running for Governor. On the policy front, the Governor has little say in the State’s budget process. The Mayor, on the other hand, sets the City’s budget and has only a 13-member City Council to deal with. The small numbers, alone, make the situation relatively easy to control or, in the alternative, to ignore.

Historically, being Mayor of Denver often automatically meant being disliked outside the City. Suburban citizens often are envious of Denver and those further away often resent those from the Big City. While Hickenlooper enjoys a level of popularity which currently transcends this phenomenon, once he is attacked by his political opponents -- who will cast him as unfailingly Denver-centric -- he may not as appealing a candidate outside Denver as pollsters claim today.

Being Mayor allows Hickenlooper to be directly involved in policy-making, deal-making, and in the shaping of the City. Being Governor rarely offers such direct, hands-on opportunities. Hickenlooper is intimately involved in leading-edge opportunities he simply would not have as Governor.

Hickenlooper’s son, Teddy, is not yet four years old. While a campaign in Denver allows a candidate to be home almost every night, a campaign across Colorado means tens of thousands of miles of travel and many nights away.

The 2003 mayoral campaign was conducted at a high level, with personal attacks and the involvement of vituperative third parties kept to a minimum. A statewide race for Governor is almost guaranteed to be a malevolent affair. While politically and mentally tough to handle this reality, Hickenlooper is likely to enjoy such street brawling far less than other politicians.

Hickenlooper loves being Mayor of Denver and immediately would have to compromise his position if he were to be a candidate for Governor. Everything he did would be subject to a much higher level of scrutiny and would be subject to a constant stream of allegations of political opportunism (i.e., using Denver to promote his statewide candidacy). He would find this terribly distasteful.

Hickenlooper is still young, politically-speaking, and easily could run for Governor in another four or eight years, if he had any desire to do so.

While John Hickenlooper will listen to the sirens’ call to the Governor’s mansion and will be promised millions of dollars in direct and indirect support for a gubernatorial candidacy, he ultimately will decline the opportunity. Instead, he will focus on his true love (besides his wife, Helen Thorpe) -- making Denver, Colorado, one of the greatest cities in the world. That reason alone is why he will not run for Governor in 2006. Of course, now that I’ve stuck my neck out and made that prediction...