The Aaron Harber Show

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IS HICKENLOOPER OR SALAZAR IN THE WINGS?
08-12-05

With the shocking, surprise withdrawal of Rutt Bridges from the 2006 Governor's race, the question everyone is asking is "Will any other Democrats step forward?" State Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald has considered running but she knows, if she does, she likely would have to give up the Senate presidency. There is almost no way she would be able to continue the full-time duties of the presidency and simultaneously campaign around the State -- especially if there still were a primary. Because Fitz-Gerald can run for re-election, she also may want to extend her tenure as Senate President (assuming the Democrats maintain their paper-thin 18-17 majority in the State Senate). Conservative money says Fitz-Gerald won't run.

Pressure was previously placed on Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper but he made it clear he loved being Mayor -- which many argue is a superior and more powerful position than Governor -- and had an unfinished agenda. Anyone watching Hickenlooper is impressed by how much he enjoys his job and can understand why he would rather run for re-election in 2007. Hickenlooper's personal story and his astounding success as Mayor, however, make him too attractive for Democrats to ignore. The pressure on him only will increase but the odds are against his being cajoled to run.

The only other high-profile Democrat available is U.S. Senator Ken Salazar. Salazar has the advantage of having just won a statewide election in 2004, having access to a statewide campaign organization, and having ready access to a nationwide fundraising apparatus. He has Colorado 's most impressive personal story, starting with his family's multi-generational agricultural and ranching roots in the San Luis Valley . He's the rare Democrat who can get strong Western Slope and Rural Colorado support while maintaining traditional strengths in urban areas. And Salazar's name identification has to be higher across the State than any other Democrat.

During his brief tenure to date as a U.S. Senator, Salazar has steered a relatively middle-of-the-road course, with a few noticeable turns to the Right. This positioning can only make him a stronger General Election candidate in a state which has a plurality of Republican voters. And his voting independence resonates with Colorado 's key swing voters -- members of the electorate not registered with any party. Even better for Democrats, if Salazar won the race for Governor, he would be able to appoint his replacement in the U.S. Senate. Personally, if he lost, he would retain his Senate seat.

Salazar's only weakness is he was just elected to a six-year term in the U.S. Senate. Normally his opponents would be poised to argue that it would be unreasonable to run for the Senate and then, without skipping a beat (or an election), run for Governor. Ironically, this weakness is mitigated by the fact the likely Republican nominee -- Bob Beauprez -- faces similar questions. Beauprez just ran for reelection in 2004 and won handily. He then became only the third Coloradan ever to be appointed to Congress's Ways & Means Committee. This powerful House committee dominates spending decisions and is where almost every member of the U.S. House wishes he or she could be.

Whenever asked about the problem of a premature departure and the loss of the rare Ways & Means seat, Beauprez handles it well. His response is he could better serve the people of Colorado as their Governor. He notes there is a world of difference between being one of 435 members of Congress versus being governor of a state. He also emphasized his personal experience as a CEO and how that fit so well with the position of Governor. Clearly, Bob Beauprez has contemplated the "departure" question. It is likely Salazar, who served extensively in State government in numerous capacities (as Executive Director of the Department of Natural Resources, as the Governor's Chief Counsel, and as Attorney General), can make just as compelling an argument. Stay tuned. We'll know more very soon.