The Aaron Harber Show

Aaron's Real Opinions (Yikes!)

PART II: WHO WANTS TO BE GOVERNOR?
05-20-05

A match-up between Democratic U.S. Senator Ken Salazar and Congressman Bob Beauprez would be a contest between the two most successful up-and-coming elected officials in Colorado . Not much more than two years ago Beauprez was the Republican State Party Chairman and had never won or even run for elected public office. Salazar already had won two statewide elections as Attorney General. Having just won the U.S. Senate seat only several months ago, some Democrats are concerned that Salazar appears too politically "eager."

It is true that running for Governor immediately after winning a U.S. Senate seat seems politically avaricious but how many Colorado voters will care? If Salazar tells them he thinks Washington stinks and he wants to do more for the State and can do that by being Governor, the odds are most will nod their heads in agreement. Anyone who knows Salazar appreciates how well-versed he is in State issues. Plus, as Beauprez himself is explaining, the opportunity to run for the Governor's office with no incumbent or heir apparent doesn't happen often. He's already making the same arguments Salazar would have to make, especially given the fact they both were elected in 2004 (although Salazar won a six-year term and Beauprez's is only two years).

Beauprez would be giving up his seat despite being assigned to the powerful Ways & Means Committee so both contestants would be in similar situations - giving up positions important to their parties. Beauprez proved he can win reelection easily in what should be a tough, highly competitive district. Salazar is the only Democrat in the past decade who has proved he or she can win major statewide races in a State with far more voters registered Republican than Democratic.

In addition, if Salazar is interested in pursuing the presidency - and given the dearth of viable Democratic candidates over the next decade - history has demonstrated success comes from governors' mansions and not the U.S. Senate. Presidents Carter, Reagan, Clinton, and Bush were governors while no President in the last several decades came from the Congress. Beauprez knows this history.

In Salazar's case, however, if he won the Governor's race, he would be able to name his successor in the U.S. Senate. Beauprez would not be able to do the same for his congressional seat so both the Ways & Means position and one vote in the Congress could be lost. Realistically, however, the loss of one seat in the House does not mean much. The Republicans increased their grip on the U.S. House and, although Democrats hope to again be in the majority someday, there is no basis for that concern today. Beauprez's departure from the House would not be noticed. And, of course, if the Republican candidate in the 7 th Congressional District were to win election - which probably is a 50-50 proposition - there would be no seat lost.

So, what do you think will happen? As an astute political scientist, former survey research expert, and a long-time observer of Colorado politics, I don't have a clue about what will happen.