Aaron's Real Opinions (Yikes!)

How Did John Hickenlooper Really Win?
06-04-03

The pundits are gnashing their teeth trying to explain how just 120 days ago none of them were predicting that John Hickenlooper -- an unknown restaurant owner, beer maker, housing builder, and civic contributor, who had never run before for public office – swept into office over far better known, more seasoned, and once better financed opponents. Here are the answers.

GOOD DECISIONS. Hickenlooper made many good decisions -- running as himself, getting on TV early with humorous ads which made a relevant point, staying on TV through the Iraq War, and "staying on message" regarding the Economy and jobs.

CONTRAST. Everyone else who was running had extensive government or political experience. Hickenlooper separated himself from the crowd simply by having a successful business background.

OVERCONFIDENCE. Candidates who saw themselves as superior were overconfident. There was an air of presumptuousness in the behavior of some campaigns. Plus they saw Federico’s climb from 3% in the polls to a victory as proof anyone could get elected (and "anyone" did – it just wasn’t them).

RADAR. Hickenlooper flew "under the radar" for a long time as everyone focused on Ari Zavaras and then on Don Mares. Zavaras took the blows of the frontrunner for months. By the time other candidates took Hickenlooper seriously, it was too late.

GREAT TIMING. Voters were unhappy with negative campaigning and welcomed a candidate who forswore it. Also, the Economy stunk and Hickenlooper was the only candidate who had a great track record of creating jobs, tax revenue, and housing.

SUPER ENDORSEMENT. The early Rocky Mountain News endorsement was so good Hickenlooper could not have written a better one himself. As the candidate who had no political experience, it legitimized him in a manner which had a far greater effect than it would have had for any other candidate.

MONEY, MONEY, MONEY. Hickenlooper’s amazing +$2 million warchest made him competitive for the May 6th election and the $1 million portion of that which he raised during the run-off campaign allowed him to stay on television and radio without skipping a beat. Mares was swamped electronically in the process and never could recover.

TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE. Mares tried to adapt to his opponent but he had engineered a campaign against one-time frontrunner Ari Zavaras. By the time he changed his tactics, the run-off election was only days away. The issues he raised were good ones – Hickenlooper’s opposition to a smoking ban, Mares’s intimate knowledge of City government, Mares’ argument City layoffs were not necessary, et cetera – but they never got any traction.

There is no question that John Hickenlooper’s win represents watershed change after decades of leadership from established political figures. Denver now will get to see how a truly successful businessman governs this vibrant but financially troubled city.

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Aaron Harber hosts "The Aaron Harber Show," seen Fridays at 9:00 pm and Sundays at 2:00 pm on PBS Station KBDI-TV Channel 12. Please go to www.HarberTV.com for more information. Send your comments and topic suggestions for both columns and TV shows to Aaron@HarberTV.com. You also may view programs on a 24/7 basis via the "Broadcast Videos" section of the Website. Many of Aaron's columns also are available on the Website on the page entitled "Aaron's Opinions." You often can find them in The Colorado Statesman (www.ColoradoStatesman.com) as well as in The Denver Daily News (www.DenverDailyNews.com).

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