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President Gary Hart?
02-01-03

Can Colorado’s favorite son, former U.S. Senator Gary Hart, pull off what many would characterize as the greatest political comeback in American history and become our next President or is his current venture purely quixotic? Whether you are a Democrat or Republican doesn’t matter – it’s always exciting to see a favorite son or daughter succeed and be from his or her home state. The odds against Hart are poor, especially as George Bush’s popularity is likely to increase further as the nation heads towards war. But if the war does not go well or if the Economy continues to sputter, Hart’s gambit is more likely to succeed than many think for several reasons.

Hart easily outdistances the field in knowledge about relevant issues and in his ability to articulate that knowledge. His experience on the Senate Armed Services Committee and his service on the Senate’s Intelligence Oversight Committee as well as its Environment Committee position him well for both today’s issues and with core segments of the Democratic Party. Even today, his now two-decade old "new" proposals for reforming the military sadly are just as relevant and even as "new" as they originally were.

Among all the candidates, Hart is far and away most expert in the area of Homeland Security. He has been lauded for his service as Co-Chair of the bipartisan U.S. Commission On National Security For The 21st Century, where he predicted long before 9-11 that America would be attacked on its own soil by terrorists. And he again is predicting more surprises and tragedies are in store. He is more articulate on what may be the most important issue for a Democratic candidate in the 2004 election than any of his opponents.

Hart has the experience of both managing a presidential campaign (George McGovern’s campaign in 1972) and running as a candidate in two campaigns (1984 and 1988). Although all three experiences were unsuccessful from an electoral perspective, one cannot underestimate the value of "having been there." In politics, some of the greatest successes are by those with experiences at such high levels – irrespective of whether those experiences were positive or negative.

The "Big Guns" already have dropped out, as former Vice President Al Gore, Senator Joseph Biden, and former U.S. Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, among others, have announced their decisions to not run. They concluded there would be a war and President Bush would remain immensely popular, especially as the nation coalesced behind him in a time of conflict, as the country traditionally does. This has created an opportunity similar to the vacuum filled in 1992 by Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, when the big names such as Mario Cuomo, Ted Kennedy, Bill Bradley, et al, decided to not take on the then very popular incumbent, George Bush. President Bush’s popularity declined precipitously and the incumbent lost to Clinton.

Compared to the field (Howard Dean, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, et al), Hart has the depth, political experience, and contacts (from Washington to Hollywood) to launch a viable campaign – but only if he’s willing to use those connections and relationships.

Hart’s strategy is sophisticated. He avoids being seen as unpatriotic by not simply arguing there should not be a war against Iraq. Rather, he is contending the current Administration has failed to prepare America for war and has failed to meet even the most basic needs of any viable Homeland Security program. Until those are completed, Hart argues, the nation should not go to war.

Hence, his strategy, while not anti-war in nature, will attract anti-war advocates because the other Democratic candidates are unlikely to come out against the war for fear of being seen as unpatriotic. This is exactly what happened to Democrats in the 2002 General Election – who meekly cowered in the presence of the President. While the other Democrats in the field are not willing to concede the presidency to Bush, their strategies avoid taking the President on directly. This strategy already was proven to be a losing one in the 2002 General Election. Hart is the exception to this approach and has detailed serious criticisms of the Administration’s failure to make significant progress in protecting America and in preparing us for the likely attacks on our soil which will occur if we go to war. Hart’s perspective – which is sincere – allows him to be patriotic and anti-war at the same time. Furthermore, he recognizes that the anti-war sentiment across the nation and, especially within the ranks of the Democratic Party faithful, is quite strong – and likely has been underestimated by his immediate competition.

Hart’s biggest liability remains his misjudgment with Donna Rice. She has moved on, he and his family have moved on, and most Americans have moved on. The Press, however, which is loathe to get into the details of the kind of policy debates Hart would like to see, has not moved on. Hart’s challenge will be to show enough initial strength that the issue disappears. If he can score some early victories – including in the polls – the Press will move on to other things.

Hart also has to face the reality that he will need a lot of help to win a presidential campaign today. While his experience is an asset, the world of politics has changed substantially in the decade and a half which has gone by since he last ran for America’s highest office. He needs to ask for help and he needs to get it now if he is going to succeed in the sprint of just weeks when primaries are held next year.

Hart wants to run a shoestring campaign but such an approach is unlikely to work given the resources other candidates will have. And if he is sunning to win, he needs to amass considerable resources given the ones the President certainly will have against any Democratic nominee. President Bush is a superb campaigner and a prodigious fundraiser. Hart’s approach today is similar to the campaigns run by Ralph Nader. While they are attractive intellectually, far more resources will be needed to win the Democratic nomination and certainly the 2004 General Election.

Finally, Hart needs to launch a major outreach effort to his friends and past supporters. And he needs to restore and expand his Colorado base. Most his previously hurt supporters (i.e., from his failed candidacy in 1988) are likely to have forgiven him by now. Like Hart, they all are 15 years older, much wiser, and more forgiving. Hart especially needs to quickly and proactively restore his relationships in Colorado because so many people in the national Press contact Coloradans for their opinions about Hart. If these people -- who could be natural supporters -- are dismissive, the Press will be, too. This already happened when Hart floated trial balloons at the end of 2002. Hart needs to mend these fences right now. If he does, his chances will increase significantly.

Gary Hart has a lot going for him. He still has high name ID among the Press, the public, and party operatives. If he makes the right moves today, in just 21 months, Colorado could have its first President.

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Aaron Harber hosts "The Aaron Harber Show," seen Fridays at 9:00 pm and Sundays at 2:00 pm on PBS Station KBDI-TV Channel 12. Please go to www.HarberTV.com for more information. Send your comments and topic suggestions for both columns and TV shows to Aaron@HarberTV.com. You also may view programs on a 24/7 basis via the "Broadcast Videos" section of the Website. Many of Aaron's columns also are available on the Website on the page entitled "Aaron's Opinions." You often can find them in The Colorado Statesman (www.ColoradoStatesman.com) as well as in The Denver Daily News (www.DenverDailyNews.com).

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